Good And Bad News For President Trump In UT Poll

Chris Fox
November 05, 2019 - 6:09 am

AP Photo/ Evan Vucc

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AUSTIN (1080 KRLD) - Although a slight majority of Texas voters say they would rather vote for someone else than reelect President Donald Trump in 2020, none of the leading Democratic candidates currently has enough support to turn the Lone Star State blue in the presidential election, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

When asked about their likelihood of reelecting Trump in 2020, 48% of Texas voters said they are likely to vote for the incumbent (40% “definitely” and 8% “probably”), while 52% said they are unlikely to vote to reelect the president (46% “definitely not” and 6% “probably not”).

This is a 4 percentage point decrease in Trump’s support since the June 2019 poll. When asked whom they want as the Democratic nominee, likely Texas

Democratic presidential primary voters chose Joe Biden (23%), followed by Elizabeth Warren (18%), Beto O’Rourke (14%), and Bernie Sanders (12%).

But the poll indicates that this could change — 39% of likely Democratic primary voters said they were somewhat or very likely to change their minds, while 54% indicated they had made up their minds.

“Texas voters haven’t really focused on the primary contest yet,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll and UT Austin government professor. “While the basic structure of the race is apparent from these early polls, what happens in Texas on March 3 is going to be significantly influenced by the results of the early elections in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.”

The poll also queried voters on a series of potential head-to-head matchups in the 2020 elections, all of which ended in the reelection of Trump. Some highlights include:

•  Trump vs. Biden: 46% would vote for Trump, 39% for Biden.

•  Trump vs. Warren: 46% would vote for Trump, 39% for Warren.

•  Trump vs. O’Rourke: 47% would vote for Trump, 41% for O’Rourke.

•  Trump vs. Sanders: 45% would vote for Trump, 40% for Sanders.

•  Trump vs. Julián Castro: 46% would vote for Trump, 33% for Castro.

“President Trump is clearly the favorite in Texas,” Shaw said. “He’s not a great fit for the state — his immigration and trade policies play a little better in the Midwest states than they do here — but the Republican base in Texas has mostly coalesced around his candidacy, and that makes him tough to beat.”