Warm Today, Preparing For Possible Weekend Storms

Dan Brounoff
May 16, 2019 - 8:03 am

Lots of hoopla on Saturday's severe weather threat. Please remember, time of day, initial cloud cover and track of upper level support dictate how severe the weather will and will not be.

Also remember, we are still at least 48 hours from the onset of precipitation. Your forecast will have subtle changes between now and then.

This being said, not everyone will see severe storms.

At this time, My thinking is this: 

Storms (supercells) will start to fire over 300 miles to our west after 6pm Friday. Storms may congeal into a line or a MCS (large blob) of storms overnight and head east arriving by mid morning in a weakened state. This will stabilize the atmosphere through late afternoon...If this happens, areas east of a Sherman to McKinney to Waxahachie line will have the greatest threat for hail, wind and an isolated tornado by afternoon and evening, leaving the majority of north Tx (Dallas->WEST) severe weather-free.

Sunday look ok, but the warmth and humidity will stick around. 

Storms possible again late Monday into Tuesday, but not in stone as of now.

  • Air Quality Alert GONE!
  • Another nice day today with highs in the 80s.
  • Storms building west of us late Friday evening.
  • Storms slowly move in by late Saturday morning. Some severe.
  • Sunday looks nice!
  • More strong storms possible early next week.
  • Yest Rain: 0.00”; May Rain: 4.92”; Surplus: 2.51”

Yesterday: High: 86; Low: 63; 2019 Rain: 16.55”; Surplus: 2.79”  
Normals: High: 84; Low: 64 - Record high: 94 (1993); Low: 44 (1907)

Today: Partly sunny and warm. High: Upper 80s. Wind: South 5-10 mph.
Tonight: Low clouds by daybreak. Mild and muggy. Low: Near 70. Wind: South 10-15 mph. 
Tomorrow: AM low clouds, Peeks of afternoon sun. Windy and warm. High: Mid 80s. Wind: South 15-25 mph.
Saturday: Good chance of thunderstorms. Some severe. Rain heavy at times. High: Upper 70s.
Sunday: A break in the storms. Sunny and warm. High: Mid 80s.
Mon. & Tues: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms. High: Low to mid 80s. 
Wednesday: Sunny and warm. High: Upper 80s.